Nigeria's political landscape is witnessing a troubling trend, a relentless wave of defections from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). While political cross-carpeting isn't new, the sheer scale and frequency of recent shifts have sparked fears that Nigeria could be inching dangerously close to a one-party system.
In an interview with the VanguardNgr, a renowned civil society leader and political science professor, Odion Akhaine, lays bare the systemic weaknesses undermining Nigeria’s democratic development. He argues that the current spate of defections is not just political strategy, it’s symptomatic of a deeper rot rooted in the absence of ideological coherence, institutional party culture, and political accountability.
Why Party Culture Has Failed to Take Root
At the heart of Nigeria’s democratic fragility, says Akhaine, is the failure to nurture genuine party culture. Political parties in the country, he contends, are largely "special purpose vehicles" with no binding ideology or enduring vision. Instead of serving as platforms for shared values and policy direction, they are often formed or rebranded by individuals seeking power.
A party culture that is underlined by a clear ideology, we have not had it. Therefore, people move from one party to the other depending on the weather. In Nigeria, there are no political parties. What we have are special purpose vehicles. A politician can form three political parties and bid for presidency or governorship on a platform of one. If he loses, he will go to another party, which was also formed by him. In summary, we don’t have a party culture.” Akhaine asserts.
Unlike democracies where political parties are driven by clear principles and disciplined institutions, Nigerian parties typically revolve around powerful individuals, often the president or governor, who dictate the terms, sidelining internal democracy.
Defections: A Culture of Survivalism, Not Ideology
According to Akhaine, the defections are neither ideological nor in pursuit of better governance. They are, more often than not, a bid for political survival and personal gain. The ruling party becomes a sanctuary, especially for politicians with corruption cases, as enforcement institutions like the Economic Financial Crime Commision (EFCC) and Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offenses Commission (ICPC) are seen to turn a blind eye once a defector joins the ruling party.
They are doing it on the basis of what they can get from the ruling party. It is for self-aggrandisement. That is the basis of what they are doing. Incumbents in Nigeria have also weaponised the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), in terms of those who have embezzled our commonwealth. They are given respite when they move to the ruling party. These are the attractions for the defections—not integrity or that a party is doing well in office or has ideological direction. he explains.
A System Designed to Discourage Grassroots Democracy
Professor Akhaine also points to the flawed structure of Nigeria’s party registration laws. The requirement for parties to have a national spread such as offices in two-thirds of the states, discourages the rise of smaller, issue-based parties rooted at local or state levels. This centralized model, he warns, reinforces political monopolies and stifles experimentation in governance at the subnational level.
Is a Two-Party System the Solution?
While some have called for the formalization of a two-party system to stabilize the political space, Akhaine is cautious. He notes that, though Nigeria already has two dominant parties, APC and PDP, neither adheres to a clear ideological divide. Unlike in the UK or US, where Labour and Conservatives, or Democrats and Republicans, differ fundamentally in ideology, Nigeria’s major parties are ideologically indistinct.
As contradictory as it appears, we have actually had two dominant parties in the country. It is not a two-party state, but we have two dominant parties. It is just like in Britain, where Labour and Conservative are the dominant parties, but other parties exist. In the US, Republicans and Democrats are the two dominant parties, but others also exist. It is the same in Germany and other parts of Europe. That is the trend. However, the issue is that, whereas those parties are ideologically segregated, in Nigeria there is no ideological boundary. It is an all-comers affair. If we had a good concept of party formation, parties could be formed at the local government level only to contest local government elections. But we have party rules that are counterproductive. he says.
Opposition in Disarray, 2027 Already Slipping Away
On the prospects of a viable opposition comeback ahead of the 2027 elections, Akhaine is blunt: the time is already too short. The opposition, fragmented and lacking in strategy, is currently incapable of mounting a serious challenge to the APC’s dominance. He believes that unless a radical shift happens at the state level—with strong local alliances and fresh leadership—it’s unlikely any national opposition effort will succeed.
In politics, they say a day is like a century for manipulation. But the opposition, as presently constituted, doesn’t even qualify as an official opposition. They are in complete disarray. And if you look at power politics in Nigeria, power is likely to remain in the South for the next six years. The question is whether Asiwaju will be re-elected. If a candidate comes from the North, I can tell you the entire South will vote for Tinubu. This time it won’t be about performance—it will be based on sentiments. I don’t see the opposition altering the equation. If you bring a candidate from the East without the electoral capital to defeat a candidate from the South-West, it won’t work. And time is too short to build the kind of alliance required to unseat an incumbent. In my opinion, this is the time for building and appropriating political capital at the state level—not at the central level.
Even last-minute coalitions, such as those seen in Kenya or Senegal, may not work in Nigeria's context, given the nature of elite politics. Here, the short-term pursuit of power often trumps any commitment to long-term reform or ideological alignment.
The Risk of Democratic Erosion
Akhaine concludes with a warning: the danger isn’t just the weakening of political parties, it’s the erosion of space for dissent and citizen participation. The increasing harassment of vocal citizens and the shrinking of democratic space suggest that the drift towards a dominant-party system carries risks beyond electoral politics.
One of the things I find disturbing is the increasing intolerance of oppositional voices. I’m not just referring to parties like the PDP. I’m also talking about ordinary citizens who speak out. Their harassment is not good for the polity. It becomes even more dangerous if we end up with one dominant party in the country. It’s not good for democracy.
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